Falling global commodity prices and economic slowdowns in several major economies weighed on Indonesia's external sector in 2023. However, the outlook going into 2024 is supported by our expectation of an increase in government spending. Ahead of the general elections in February 2024, fiscal policy was loosened as the incumbent administration undertook populist spending measures and offereds fiscal incentives, which will directly and indirectly (through a multiplier effect on private consumption) contribute to real GDP growth.

Indonesia is the sixth-biggest emerging market by GDP, and in the past decade has grown faster than any other $1trn-plus economy bar China and India. A source of dynamism is digital services, which are helping create a more integrated consumer market, with over 100m people collectively spending $80bn a year on everything from e-payments to apps for on-demand trucking.

Its location, size and resources make it a key theatre in the superpower contest. Reflecting a tradition of non-alignment that goes back to the 1950s, it wants to be neutral, and has successfully done so.

Indonesia's general election was held on February 14th. Although official results will be announced in March, preliminary counting of the votes suggest that the incumbent defence minister, Prabowo Subianto, will secure the presidency in the first round of voting itself. Joko Widodo (Jokowi) will remain the caretaker president until October 2024 when the new president will be sworn in.

What will the new administration look like? Will Prabowo, as most people expect, continue the policy direction from the Jokowi administration? What new features will he put on it? We will discuss:

• Economic and political outlook for Indonesia
• Business environment
• Foreign relations and trade
• Domestic consumption
• Industry spotlight