In our regular series on the hot-spots of regional growth, we look at the economic and political outlooks for India. India is likely to be one of the world's fastest growing big economies in 2023, and has become the largest country in the world by population, surpassing China in April 2023. A vast national market is being created, allowing firms to grow from economies of scale, internal migration is shifting tens of millions of rural people, there is a confident and prosperous middle-class emerging, and empires are being built on new, and green, technologies.
From 2014 to 2021, India's economy grew by 40%. By 2027, India will be the world's fifth largest economy. India's youthful demographic profile is a crucial advantage, promising good availability of labour. We forecast India's working-age population to expand by almost 100m in the period to 2030, pushing it comfortably past 1bn, while that of China will fall by 40m to under 950m. Absorbing additional labour supply creates strong incentives for the government to develop the manufacturing sector.
Its' stock market is the 4th largest in the world, and it has about 100 unicorns. A single national market is emerging in which more firms and consumers use the modern financial system, subsidies are being handed out by the Modi government to attract MNCs. Yet, there are questions over the resilience of its financial system, inequality within cities and between states, the education system and religious tensions.
What can we expect from India over the next decade? What is its role in the search for resilient supply chains? How much improvement can we expect to see in its business environment?
In this programme, we will:
Present our latest economic and political outlook for India
Discuss our forecasts for India's business environment rankings
Explore whether India can benefit from shifting supply chains to grow its manufacturing potential
Share perspectives on the opportunities and risks across business sectors
Our panel will include:
Shalini Mittal, Principal Economist, Asia, Economist Intelligence Unit
Karthik Nachiappan, Fellow, Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore
Sumana Rajarethnam, Director, South-East Asia of Economist Intelligence Corporate Network
8:00 AM - 8:30 AM
Doors open and registration
8:30 AM - 9:00 AM
9:00 AM - 9:45 AM
9:45 AM - 10:00 AM
Q&A and networking
Principal economist, Asia at Economist Intelligence Unit
Shalini is Principal Economist, Asia at the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). She is an expert on macroeconomic issues in South Asia with specific interest in business cycles, monetary policy and financial stability, debt and fiscal sustainability, macroeconomic modelling, labor market issues, structural transformational issues and income inequality. As Principal Economist, Asia, she leads a team of analysts across the Asia looking after quality of content.
Prior to her role at the EIU, she worked with the Asian Development Bank focusing on India and South Asia. She has contributed regularly to the Economist forum, Asian Development Outlook, ADB-India’s country partnership strategy and a number of policy based loans for India and South Asia such as COVID CARES loan, APVAX, early childhood development and multimodal logistics policy. She has nearly 10 years of experience working with public policy think tanks, international organisations and multinational companies in London and India.
Shalini holds a BSc and MSc in Economics from the London School of Economics and Political Science and also worked there as a graduate teaching assistant.
Fellow, Institute of South Asian Studies at National University of Singapore
Karthik Nachiappan is Fellow, Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore. His research focuses on India’s Geo-economics, covering issues like international trade, investment, and technology.
Director, South-East Asia of Economist Intelligence Corporate Network
Sumana is a senior policy professional with 17 years of experience. Having worked at several dynamic and vibrant tech firms, Sumana designs and implements policies through advocacy, strategic communication and evidence-based analysis. With a flair for writing and communication, Sumana is able to negotiate complex engagements & cultivate senior-level internal/external relationships.
Sumana holds a Masters in Public Policy from the University of Michigan, as well as a B.A. in Political Science and Geography from UCLA.