Event Details
As the new year begins, wars are raging in Africa, Europe and the Middle East. And shipping is under attack in the Red Sea, threating new transport and commodity price spikes. These crises are explosive in their own right. Combine them with a presidential race in America and 2024 promises to be a make-or-break year for the post-1945 world order.
The 2020s were destined to be dangerous. The West's share of world GDP has fallen towards 50% for the first time since the 19th century. Countries such as India and Turkey believe the global institutions created after 1945 do not reflect their concerns. China and Russia want to go further and subvert this system. Their club - the enlarged BRICS bloc (now including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Iran) - clearly has more than one eye on upsetting US political and financial hegemony. Though America's economy is still pre-eminent, its unipolar moment has ended. And its allies in Europe and Japan are in relative economic decline.
The new dynamic is one of instability and an unpredictable cycle of populism, interventionist economics and transactional globalisation.
But what does this mean for our own region, that is geographically and politically in between East and West? Can it resist the siren calls to choose sides, and reap the benefit of both Asian economic growth and Western security assurances?
This year's EICN Regional Strategic Forecast will explore this unfamiliar landscape, with its new alliances, fierce rivalry, mistrust and weaponisation of finance, technology and critical minerals. How will businesses be impacted by industrial policies that support strategically important domestic priorities over trade?
Join us, and leading regional politicians and business leaders, as we assess the implications of this mulipolar disorder.
