Event Details
Will the next global renaissance be in the Middle East?
A popular new narrative in the Middle East is that the region will be focused on economics rather than democratisation, Islamisation or other distracting ideologies. Diplomacy will bring stability, which will foster investment and growth that helps everyone move beyond the upheavals of decades past. The Gulf states have long applied this model at home; now they want to export it.
The Middle East has huge potential. First, and most obvious, it is awash with hydrocarbons. At a time when Western oil majors are skittish about investing, Gulf firms are adding capacity.
Location is important, too: the region connects Europe, Africa and Asia. Some 30% of the world's shipping containers pass through the Suez canal in Egypt, while 16% of its air cargo flies via airports in the Gulf. Its young population is another asset: 55% of Middle Easterners are under 30, compared with 36% of the population of the OECD, a club mostly of rich countries.
Yet the story of the past two decades has been one of conflict and despair. First came America's ill-fated invasion of Iraq in 2003. The fury of the Arab spring followed, bringing upheaval but not democracy: all the countries affected eventually either reverted to dictatorship or collapsed into civil war. Islamist violence and sectarian strife compounded the region's woes.
The region's net energy exporters will push ahead with ambitious economic development and diversification plans with the help of the hydrocarbon-induced financial windfall of recent years. Most states in the Middle East—notably the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) states —will enjoy relatively low rates of inflation and stable exchange rates.
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has intensified alarmingly, with little prospect of a resolution in the short term. Currently, we do not anticipate a wider regional war and expect Israel to prevail militarily, albeit at a heavy cost.
Join Rob Willock, General Manager and Director MENA of the Economist Intelligence Corporate Network as we discuss:
- What next for the Middle East?
- What to expect from the business environment?
- What industries will thrive in the next few years?
- What will the impact be on Asia Pacific?
