EICN Regional Strategic Forecast (RSF) - Multipolar disorder: new alliances, competition, and industrial policy. Presenting Tom Rafferty, EIU Head of Global Forecasting and Economics
Wars are raging in Africa, Europe and the Middle East as the new year begins. And shipping is under attack in the Red Sea, threatening new transport and commodity price spikes. These crises are explosive in their own right. Combine them with a presidential race in America and 2024 promises to be a make-or-break year for the post-1945 world order.
The 2020s were destined to be dangerous. The West's share of world GDP has fallen towards 50% for the first time since the 19th century. Countries such as India and Turkey believe the global institutions created after 1945 do not reflect their concerns. China and Russia want to go further and subvert this system. Their club —the enlarged BRICS bloc (now including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Iran)--- has more than one eye on upsetting US political and financial hegemony. Though America's economy is still pre-eminent, its unipolar moment has ended. Its allies in Europe and Asia, including Japan, are in an economic and demographic struggle.
The new dynamic is one of instability and an unpredictable cycle of populism, interventionist economics and transactional globalisation. These challenges to global governance are occurring at a moment when international cooperation to solve pressing global problems is more necessary than ever.
For this March's RSF, we are flying in from London the EIU's Head of Global Forecasting and Economics, Tom Rafferty, who will help us explore this unfamiliar landscape, with its new alliances, fierce rivalry, mistrust and weaponisation of finance, technology and critical minerals. Our programme continues with a conversation with a select group of Japan-based economists and corporate leaders, who will share their views on how volatile economic and geopolitical changes may affect businesses in the island nation.
Dress code: Business attire
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