Event Details

EICN Regional Strategic Forecast (RSF) - Multipolar disorder: new alliances, competition, and industrial policy. Presenting Tom Rafferty, EIU Head of Global Forecasting and Economics


Wars are raging in Africa, Europe and the Middle East as the new year begins. And shipping is under attack in the Red Sea, threatening new transport and commodity price spikes. These crises are explosive in their own right. Combine them with a presidential race in America and 2024 promises to be a make-or-break year for the post-1945 world order.


The 2020s were destined to be dangerous. The West's share of world GDP has fallen towards 50% for the first time since the 19th century. Countries such as India and Turkey believe the global institutions created after 1945 do not reflect their concerns. China and Russia want to go further and subvert this system. Their club —the enlarged BRICS bloc (now including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Iran)--- has more than one eye on upsetting US political and financial hegemony. Though America's economy is still pre-eminent, its unipolar moment has ended. Its allies in Europe and Asia, including Japan, are in an economic and demographic struggle.


The new dynamic is one of instability and an unpredictable cycle of populism, interventionist economics and transactional globalisation. These challenges to global governance are occurring at a moment when international cooperation to solve pressing global problems is more necessary than ever.


For this March's RSF, we are flying in from London the EIU's Head of Global Forecasting and Economics, Tom Rafferty, who will help us explore this unfamiliar landscape, with its new alliances, fierce rivalry, mistrust and weaponisation of finance, technology and critical minerals. Our programme continues with a conversation with a select group of Japan-based economists and corporate leaders, who will share their views on how volatile economic and geopolitical changes may affect businesses in the island nation.


Dress code: Business attire


Please note that this event is limited to senior-level executives and per invitation only. If you are not an existing member of The Economist Intelligence Corporate Network, but would like to learn how you can attend our events, don't hesitate to contact us.

Agenda

5:00 PM - 5:30 PM
Registration and Networking
5:30 PM - 6:15 PM
Presentation
6:15 PM - 6:25 PM
Break
6:25 PM - 7:50 PM
Panel Discussion (Q&A)
7:50 PM - 9:30 PM
Dinner and cocktails and drinks

Speakers

  • Tom Rafferty (Head of Global Forecasting and Economics at Economist Intelligence Unit)

    Tom Rafferty

    Head of Global Forecasting and Economics at Economist Intelligence Unit

    Tom is a seasoned analyst who delivers high impact global research and insight. He identifies the economic and geopolitical themes that will shape the global business landscape and leads the development of powerful, data-driven forecasts that make a difference for clients. A sought after presenter of the EIU’s global outlook at keynote events, Tom enjoys sharing his views in boardroom settings and appears regularly in media.

    Tom draws on more than a decade of experience as an analyst at EIU, much of it spent working in China. He is a published expert on China’s political economy and has conducted in-depth research on issues such as supply chains and geopolitical risk across Asia. Prior to EIU, Tom held research and policy roles in organisations including the UK Parliament and Oxford Analytica. He holds bachelor’s and master’s degrees from the University of Oxford.

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  • Naomi Fink (Managing Director - Global Strategist of Nikko Asset Management Group)

    Naomi Fink

    Managing Director - Global Strategist of Nikko Asset Management Group

    Naomi Fink joined Nikko Asset Management in December 2023 as Global Strategist and Managing Director. As a direct report to the firm's Chief Investment Officer, Fink is responsible for providing comprehensive investment insights and strategy guidance both internally to colleagues as well as externally to Nikko Asset Management's clients and media, spanning various asset classes, including Japan Equities, Global Equities, and Global Fixed Income. She also leads the firm's Global Investment Committee and various internal discussion groups covering global equities and global fixed income/forex.

    Prior to Nikko AM, Fink held senior macroeconomic and strategy research positions across diverse markets, geographies and asset classes at global banks and brokerages, including Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ (currently MUFG Bank), BNP Paribas and UBS. She then became Chief JApan Strategist at Jefferies Japan Limited. In 2013, she founded Europacifica Consulting, and concurrently held research positions at Capital Group between 2016 and 2023, most recently as Retirement Economist.

    Fink holds an MSc in Specialized Economic Analysis (Macroeconomic Policy and Financial Markets) from Barcelona Graduate School of Economics, an M.A (Honours) from the University of St. Andrews in the UK, and is a certified Financial Risk Manager (FRM). She is especially active in collaborating to advance the investment management industry. She was nominated to the Japan Society of Monetary Economics in 2014, and in April 2022, became Chairperson of US thinktank Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI)'s Retirement Security Reasearch Center, where she led research on financial decision-making and portfolios prior to and during investor's retirement, and received EBRI's prestigious Research Leadership Award for Retirement Security Research Center Chair. Fink is also a role model to women in the investment management industry, as a fellow of both the Women in Leadership Program from Coro Southern California, as well as the University of California, Los Angeles Women in Governance program. She is fluent in English, Japanese, Spanish and French.

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  • Martin Schulz (Chief Economist at Fujitsu Limited)

    Martin Schulz

    Chief Economist at Fujitsu Limited

    Dr. Martin Schulz is Chief Policy Economist at Fujitsu Ltd. in Tokyo.

    Martin’s work focuses on the impact of digitalization, government policies and corporate strategies. His analyses are widely quoted in international media – with regular interviews at CNBC, Bloomberg, NHK World, etc. He supports government initiatives for sustainable transformation (SX) as an advisor to the Japanese Cabinet Office and international organizations. He teaches at the Mercator School of Management.

    Before joining the Fujitsu Headquarter in 2020, Martin was a research fellow at Fujitsu Research Institute (FRI), analyzing and consulting on the economics of technology.
    He was a visiting researcher at the Bank of Japan and University of Tokyo, Assistant Professor of Economic Policy and Monetary Integration at Free University Berlin in Germany, and guest professor at several universities in Europe and Japan.

    Martin holds a PhD in Economics from Free University in Berlin, and Master’s degrees in Economics and in Political Science.

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  • Zuhair Khan (Managing Director of Union Bancaire Privée (UBP))

    Zuhair Khan

    Managing Director of Union Bancaire Privée (UBP)

    Zuhair manages a governance-focused, market-neutral, Japanese equity long-short strategy at UBP.

    Prior to joining UBP, he was Head of Research and Japan Strategist at Jefferies, where his research focused on corporate governance reform, shareholder activism and event-driven strategies.

    Zuhair has 29 years of experience at global financial institutions, including UBS, Citigroup and MUFG. Zuhair spent the early part of his career as a financial sector analyst, covering Asian banks during the Asian financial crisis in 1997-1999 and Japanese banks during the second Japanese banking crisis in 2002-2003.

    He has an MBA from the Sloan School of Management at MIT and graduated magna cum laude from the University of Pennsylvania with dual degrees from the School of Engineering and the Wharton School.

    Zuhair has worked in Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Thailand, Canada and the US. He speaks Urdu/Hindi, Japanese and a bit of Thai.

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  • Rodrigo González (Director of Economist Intelligence Corporate Network)

    Rodrigo González

    Director of Economist Intelligence Corporate Network

    Rodrigo González is the Director for Tokyo of Economist Intelligence Corporate Network.

    He works closely with regional business leaders to assist them in economic and market trends, business competitiveness, monetary and fiscal policy and general economic advisory to help them optimise their business strategies and further enhance their connections to their c-suite peers.

    He has vast experience in statistical analysis, strategy consulting and market research in different industries in and outside Japan. Rodrigo is a published author in environmental and transport economics and has spoken at international conferences in global warming and fiscal policy throughout the world.

    Rodrigo holds a PhD in Economics from Keio University and is fluent in Spanish, English, French and Japanese.

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Venue

Meiji Kinenkan

2-2-23 Moto-Akasaka
Minato-ku, Tokyo, Japan

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